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A handful of key economic data points dropped last week, painting a picture of an economy that is successfully downshifting from its recent inflation peaks even as consumers keep their footing.

According to the Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report, consumer spending rose for a fifth straight month in June. Headline sales were up 0.2% as expected, marking a slowdown from May's 1.0% increase.

VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) earns a Hold rating due to premium valuations already reflecting AI-driven growth potential in top holdings. RTH's largest positions—Amazon, Walmart, and Costco—face valuation risk, with forward P/Es of 28.6x, 40x, and 45x, respectively. Consumer pressures such as low savings rates and high credit card delinquencies elevate risk for discretionary spending and sector performance.

July 4 travel is set to stay strong despite inflation and high gas prices. These ETFs could benefit from holiday spending trends.

Launched on December 20, 2011, the VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) is a passively managed exchange traded fund designed to provide a broad exposure to the Consumer Discretionary - Retail segment of the equity market.