Ticker

BDCs face a 25% P/NAV discount, largely due to fears of AI-driven SaaS disruption. Current data shows no systemic SaaS defaults or rising credit risk in BDC portfolios. Many of the SaaS giants have been delivering stable and strong results.

Externally managed BDCs face structural challenges, notably high fees and misaligned incentives, making them difficult portfolio inclusions. I favor internally managed BDCs for long-term value, but selectively own some external names as well. There could be two motives for owning external ones: 1) tactical trades (high risk, high retur) and 2) long-term income compounding.

OTF trades at a deep discount to NAV after a 25% stock price drop in just 1 year. OTF's portfolio targets upper middle-market tech companies with mission-critical, sticky products, mitigating AI disruption risks despite 70% software exposure. In my eyes, the current 13% dividend yield is unsustainable due to weak NII coverage. But the management targets coverage improvement by mid-next year.

Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp (OTF) delivered a strong Q2, with a 2.4% total NAV return and robust share repurchases boosting NAV accretion. OTF's 13.9% dividend yield will reset lower as special dividends end, but NII yield is expected to rise through mid-2025 on wider tech loan spreads and higher leverage. Management is upbeat, citing improved technicals, wider spreads in tech lending, and catalysts such as…

Blue Owl Technology Finance offers a compelling 32% discount to NAV, driven by AI disruption fears and OBDC's merger missteps. OTF's portfolio is tech-focused, with 97% variable-rate loans and a best-in-class 0.1% non-accrual ratio, signaling strong asset quality. Dividend coverage is weaker than peers, but OTF continues regular and special dividends, supported by undistributed taxable income.