Ticker

Neste OYJ (NTOIF, NTOIY) remains a structurally advantaged player in renewable fuels, but current valuation is unattractive. Recent EBITDA surge is driven by cyclical spikes in renewable product margins, not a fundamental operational turnaround. Normalized earnings power is materially below current run-rate; I maintain a €22.5/share price target and a 'Hold' rating.

Neste is rated Buy, leveraging its lead in renewables and benefiting from both geopolitical oil tailwinds and regulatory shifts. NTOIY's margin expansion in renewables and oil products, supported by stable feedstock costs and strong term sales, signals improving ROI post-CapEx. Disciplined deleveraging and cost reductions strengthen NTOIY's balance sheet, while upcoming policy changes in the EU and US provide…