Original Article Date: November 11, 2025
Original Article Link: 📊 Chipotle CMG Stock Options Analysis (November 2025): Oversold, Fundamentally Strong, and Setting Up for a Vega Expansion Rally
Profit Update / Exit Date: January 12, 2026
Instrument: CMG LEAPS Call Option
Strategy: Long-Dated Call (LEAPS), directional swing trade
Result: +103% realized profit
Executive Summary
This article serves as a profit update and re-analysis following our original stock options analysis on Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) published on November 11, 2025.
In that original article, we outlined a bullish technical and options-based thesis and instructed readers to consider entering a long-dated LEAPS call position, emphasizing momentum continuation, improving technicals, and favorable risk-to-reward.
As of January 12, 2026, that thesis has fully played out.
- Entry price: $4.66
- Exit price: $9.50
- Holding period: ~2 months
- Realized gain: +103% on the option price
This update breaks down:
- Exactly how the profit was achieved
- What changed technically and structurally in CMG
- Why LEAPS provided outsized returns
- What the current data says now, after the move
- Lessons for future multi-month options trades
Original Trade Recap (November 11, 2025)
At the time of the original article, CMG had just experienced a sharp sell-off, followed by early signs of stabilization. The thesis focused on mean reversion + momentum recovery, supported by options positioning.
Key factors at entry:
- RSI deeply oversold on the 1-hour and daily charts
- MACD beginning to curl upward after a strong bearish impulse
- Price reclaiming VWAP and stabilizing above demand
- LEAPS calls offering asymmetric upside with defined risk
Entry executed:
- LEAPS Call Cost: $4.66 per contract
- DTE: ~400–500 days
- Intent: Multi-week to multi-month hold (not held to expiration)
📌 This was never intended as a “buy and forget” trade. It was an actively managed swing using long-dated optionality.
📊 Chart from Original Article (November 2025)
Profit Breakdown: How +103% Was Achieved
By January 12, 2026, CMG had completed a clean trend reversal:
- Higher highs and higher lows established
- Momentum indicators fully reset into bullish regimes
- Volatility expansion benefited long calls
- Delta acceleration amplified gains as price advanced
Exit executed:
- Exit price: $9.50
- Original cost: $4.66
Return Calculation (Options Price)
4.669.50−4.66×100≈103%
This gain is based strictly on the options price, not the underlying stock price, to avoid any confusion.
📌 This is exactly why LEAPS are powerful: controlled risk, convex upside.
Current Technical Re-Analysis (January 2026)
Now let’s evaluate where CMG stands after the move.
Short-Term Structure
- Price remains above VWAP
- Trend intact, but momentum is no longer early-stage
- RSI holding in the 60–65 range, signaling strength but not deep oversold opportunity
Daily / Multi-Week Structure
- MACD fully positive and extended
- RSI elevated compared to November entry
- Price has traveled a significant distance from prior demand
📊 Interpretation:
The easy money phase from the November entry is complete. While CMG remains structurally strong, the current setup is not the same risk-reward profile as it was in November.
📊 Current CMG Chart (January 2026)
Options Chain Context: Why LEAPS Worked So Well
At entry, the selected LEAPS call had:
- High delta exposure (directional leverage)
- Significant vega sensitivity (benefited from IV expansion)
- Minimal theta decay relative to shorter-dated options
As CMG rallied:
- Delta increased, accelerating gains
- IV normalized higher, supporting premium
- Time decay remained negligible due to long DTE
Why This Trade Worked (Key Lessons)
- Timing Matters More Than Direction
Being bullish after a sell-off with confirmation beats chasing strength. - LEAPS Provide Patience
Long DTE allowed the thesis to play out without being forced out by short-term noise. - Technical + Options Alignment
Momentum shift + favorable Greeks = asymmetric returns. - Defined Exit Discipline
Gains were realized when momentum matured, not when greed peaked.
What Comes Next for CMG?
At current levels:
- CMG is no longer in deep value or oversold territory
- New entries would require either:
- A meaningful pullback
- Consolidation followed by a fresh breakout
- Or a new volatility expansion catalyst
This is now a management phase, not an aggressive entry phase.
Final Thoughts
This CMG trade is a textbook example of:
- How well-timed LEAPS calls can outperform stock returns
- Why patience and structure matter more than prediction
- How disciplined exits lock in asymmetric gains
From $4.66 → $9.50, this trade delivered +103% in approximately two months, purely by following the original thesis and execution plan.
Disclaimer
This article is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The author does not currently hold any position in CMG at the time of publication. All prices, charts, and scenarios discussed are based on historical data and personal trade execution. Readers should conduct their own research and consult a licensed financial professional before making any investment decisions.
